Arms and influence

Man bites feral city

During my days in academia, this sort of conference abstract would have tempted me, just to see what the hell they were talking about:

Contemporary political discourse on armed violence and insecurity has been largely shaped by references to spatial knowledge, simulation, and control: “human terrain”, “urban clutter”, “terrorist sanctuaries”, “failed states”, “core-periphery”. The historical counterpoint to this is to be found in the key role the successive technologies of clock, engine, computer, and network have all played in spatializing the practice of warfare. In this context, what implications do “feral” Third World cities, “rogue” cities organized along non-Western ideas of urban space and infrastructure, and “wild” cities reclaimed by nature, have for the battlespaces of today and tomorrow?

It might turn out to be a brilliant example of original thinking, or an incredibly goofy whackfest. As my professorial friends at Poliblogger and Fruits and Votes can tell you, it's the sort of risk you take in the world of higher education.

Rocket balls

Of course you couldn't resist reading a post with that title. A military contractor is developing a new weapon, "kinetic fireball incendiaries." But, come on, everyone's going to call them rocket balls.

Yikes. How many D6 do you roll if you release rocket balls in a 10' by 10' room?

Big and little crusaders

I was agreeing with most of what I read in Andrew Bacevich's recent Atlantic Monthly article until I got to this section:

Embedded within this argument over military matters is a more fundamental and ideologically charged argument about basic policy. By calling for an Army configured mostly to wage stability operations, Nagl is effectively affirming the Long War as the organizing principle of post-9/11 national-security strategy, with U.S. forces called upon to bring light to those dark corners of the world where terrorists flourish. Observers differ on whether the Long War’s underlying purpose is democratic transformation or imperial domination: Did the Bush administration invade Iraq to liberate that country or to control it? Yet there is no disputing that the Long War implies a vast military enterprise undertaken on a global scale and likely to last decades. In this sense, Nagl’s reform agenda, if implemented, will serve to validate—and perpetuate—the course set by President Bush in the aftermath of 9/11.

Nagl, in Bacevich's terminology, is a "crusader." Crusaders believe that counterinsurgency wars are winnable, so the US government should reorganize its national security apparatus, including the military, to go forth and win them.

In contrast, "conservatives" believe we should stick to the old Powell Doctrine, and just avoid those long, messy wars with less than glamorous victory conditions:

Gentile understands this. Implicit in his critique of Nagl is a critique of the Bush administration, for which John Nagl serves as a proxy. Gentile’s objection to what he calls Nagl’s “breathtaking” assumption about “the efficacy of American military power to shape events” expresses a larger dissatisfaction with similar assumptions held by the senior officials who concocted the Iraq War in the first place. When Gentile charges Nagl with believing that there are “no limits to what American military power … can accomplish,” his real gripe is with the likes of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paul Wolfowitz.

And here's where Bacevich's simple distinction between crusaders and conservatives proves to be oversimplified. In reality, there are at least three categories of opinion about wars like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq:

• Big crusaders, who see "the Long War" as a single overarching conflict, or a set of intertwined wars that need to be addressed in some common fashion. Big crusaders invent terms like GWOT to describe their belief system.
• Little crusaders, who think that some of these wars are worth fighting, but there's no bigger meta-conflict at work. A little crusader might think that the war in Afghanistan or Iraq is winnable, but there's no "vast military enterprise undertaken on a global scale and likely to last decades" that we're compelled to fight.
• Conservatives, who want to push these little wars, low-intensity conflicts, or whatever the term du jour is, down the list of priorities. Whether we're not capable of doing a good job at fighting these wars, or the costs outweight the benefits, they're just not worth re-engineering the US defense apparatus to fight them.

You might slice the philosophical or doctrinal distinctions even more finely, but you get the point. I'd classify myself as a little crusader, who believes passionately in taking these conflicts seriously. Creating some bigger story arc, however, isn't necessary to justify the changes needed to fight these conflicts better. 

In fact, the story arc of "big crusaders" creates dangerous misconceptions about connections that don't really exist. Back in the 1980s, people spoke about "global terror networks" as if SMERSH or SPECTRE were running the show behind the scenes. However, revolutionary groups that use similar methods don't necessarily belong to some larger network. (And, in fact, revolutionaries in the same country, using roughly the same methods, often compete with each other.) The occasional collaboration among them, such as sharing technical information about bomb-making or psychological warfare, is also not evidence of some greater network that only a "Long War" can ultimately defeat.

Therefore, we're not just arguing semantics here. The notion that, if you're not a "conservative," you are thick as thieves with Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz, is just ludicrous.

[Thanks to Mark Grimsley for pointing out Bacevich's article.]

 

Send more stuff!

Armchair Generalist has a good post about why sending more stuff to warzones isn't necessarily a measure of success--particularly if the enemy hijacks the shipments.

An Iraqi cast of millions!

I hate the vast majority of movies about the Vietnam War, since they largely overlook the Vietnamese. Regardless of the movie's point of view--from the virulent anti-communism of The Green Berets, to the "My God we were screwed up" message of Platoon--the camera is always focused on Americans. Americans, as played by John Wayne and Willem Dafoe, fought the war. Americans argued over the right way to fight the war, or even to fight it at all. And, of course, whether we're talking about hapless hippies or sadistic sergeants, Americans screwed up the war.

Obviously, the Vietnamese themselves are missing from this picture. Therefore, we shouldn't be surprised at how little the average American knows about the anti-colonial movement that started before WWII, the Japanese occupation of Indochina during WWII, the First Indochina War, or what happened in the war between North and South Vietnam after the US withdrew its last combat forces. As far as American popular culture is concerned, the Vietnam War started with the first battles in the Ia Drang valley, and ended with a helicopter escaping the roof of the US embassy in Saigon.

And, even while the US was vigorously fighting the Vietnam War, the real story was America Agonistes. No Vietnamese are needed to tell that story, just the right cast of American characters.

So, my fellow Americans, let's not make this mistake all over again. As Edward Luttwak pointed out, war is not an engineering problem, in which the only thing that matters is the skill of the operators, and the amount of resources at their disposal. Not only is there an enemy (or enemies), but also, in counterinsurgency especially, a lot of people who are not fighting for any side, who nonetheless play a critical role in the story.

Treat with skepticism every book you read about Iraq that does not give the Iraqis a prominent part. Get irritated at journalists who tell us only about what the Americans are doing in Iraq. Demand from our newly-elected officials a definition of victory in terms that describe both Americans and Iraqis. We've hogged the camera long enough--let's share it with the Iraqis. And not just one stock character, who may happen to be a refugee, shopkeeper, sheik, or insurgent, who's somehow supposed to stand in for the mortifying complexity of an entire nation.

A new Iraq narrative?

Now that the election is behind us, how will the discussion of Iraq change? Here's my guess:

• Without Bush and his advisers running the show, many people will be ready to hear more about what's happening in Iraq, not in Washington. To put it less politely, without a President who still seems to think that you win a counterinsurgency war by killing every insurgent, until none of them are left, many Americans will be less worried about how the man in the Oval Office is screwing up the prosecution of the war.
• For those who have lost track of what's happening in Iraq, the current reality may come as a bit of a surprise. Things have changed. The Iraqi military and police now have functioning units. Running battles like the siege of Fallujah are no longer the norm. Violence is still a daily fact of life, but it has mutated into a different form. Whether or not the status quo constitutes victory, or is pointing in the direction of victory, is beyond the scope of this small post.
• The Iraq drama will feature a new cast. The new reality of Iraq begs an important question: which Americans have been most important in contributing to these changes? The answer largely lies below the level of people who give White House or Pentagon briefings. Instead, the center of Iraq strategy has shifted to the middle levels of military and civilian organizations, more along the lines that Bing West describes in The Strongest Tribe, or many contributors to the Small Wars Journal or Parameters have described.
• Reflexive mockery will become less prevalent. I'm not sure if many bloggers are quite ready for this cultural shift. What will it be like to write about America's wars, without the immediate assumption that the people in charge are incompetent?
• Attention to Iraq may be hard to sustain. The new Iraq narrative is likely to be filled with strategy and policy details. Are the current measures of success at counterinsurgency accurate? How much leverage does the United States still have over Iraqi factions? Will the final shape of Iraqi politics be more of a balance of power among sectarian and tribal forces, or will stronger, independent state institutions emerge from the turbulent waters of factional struggle? Not everyone has the patience or interest in these details. Unfortunately, you can't say much about the Iraq war without diving into the details.

To the extent that everyone, regardless of their political affiliation or opinion of the war, can move to a more pragmatic discussion of the Iraq war, which is the real theme of this new narrative, I say, Hallelujah!

New rules for DOJ ball

Whether or not the Obama Administration closes down Guantanamo Bay soon after Inauguration Day, the Department of Justice's role in counterterrorism is going to change:

• The cases against many detainees, at Guantanamo Bay and other facilities, have already been falling apart.
• The Obama Administration will likely not pursue cases as vigorously as its predecessor. For example, by choosing not to contest federal court rulings, such as the recent one concerning the treatment of the Uighur prisoners, Guantanamo will begin to depopulate. In other situations where the Bush DOJ contested decisions, an Obama DOJ is less likely to make the same legal challenges.
• The DOJ is likely to be one of the main targets of the Obama team's planned "personnel review." If you're working for the DOJ, and you're a graduate of Patrick Henry University, you might want to polish up your resume.
• On top of the existing Guantanamo-inspired Supreme Court rulings, more potential cases before the Court are in the works. Again, the Obama Administration can choose not to put up a fight, in which case, the depopulation of Guantanamo will acelerate that much more.

The only thing that might make this situation better is the comic spectacle of some who supported for the bogus "unitary executive" theory now arguing against Obama's presidential discretion in handling these cases. Don't discount the possibility.

But is Lando a socialist?

I'll be back to posting serious stuff later today, but in the meantime, here's a video for your enjoyment, if you're already nostalgic for the campaign season. The clip is good enough to violate my "I'm so goddamn sick of Star Wars" rule to post it.

See more funny videos at Funny or Die

Congratulations, President-elect Obama

Now let's see what this country can really do in the world.

The political side of counterinsurgency, part I

Kenneth Payne's recent article in Parameters, "Waging Communication War," raises one of the critical questions around counterinsurgency: How does the political action part work, exactly?

Payne can't possibly answer the question fully in a short article. However, it's important to recognize how little guidance most statements of counterinsurgency doctrine provide. For example:

• Everyone can agree that it's important to understand the population of people whom you're trying to win away from the insurgents. But what constitutes a convincing argument for supporting the government over the guerrillas?
• Where do you begin, with the local elites or average people?
• Are you trying to win the population's support or acquiescence?
• How do you know you've succeeded? And how lasting is that success?

And so on. For the lieutenant or captain stepping into the job of counterinsurgency, even the best books on the subject have surprisingly little to say that provides specific guidance. Just saying that, "Every country is different," is even worse. Surely there's some practical guidance that someone can provide.

Some of the more recent training developed in the US Army and Marines is helpful on this score. I'd also like to offer another source of advice, something that Payne alludes to but only begins to explore, contemporary theories about marketing.

Now, before you roll your eyes, let me just say that the kind of advice I'm talking about goes beyond what people often think of, when they hear marketing. Slick advertising executives of the sort you see on Mad Men need not apply. Instead, there are some very down-to-earth ideas about how businesses and consumers make economic decisions that have some relevance in the counterinsurgency biz. I'll sketch out a few of them in some upcoming posts.