Now that the governments of Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela have agreed to stand down from their recent confrontation, why did Colombia ignite this crisis in the first place? And who, if anyone, won?
Colombian president Álvaro Uribe certainly knew that a cross-border raid against FARC camps in Ecuador wasn't going to destroy the FARC, even if a high-ranking FARC leader died in the process. Uribe could easily calculate Ecuador's response to the raid (indignation, chest-thumping about sovereignty), and Venezuela's reaction to charges that Hugo Chávez was sending money to the FARC (outrage, some sort of retaliatory threat or action).
Therefore, the events of the last several days may have been Uribe's version of what Egyptian president Anwar Sadat did in 1973: using a short conflict to attract international attention to a neglected problem, and international pressure on some of the sources of that problem.
Sadat calculated that, even if the Israeli Defense Forces won a military victory, the US and USSR would rush to end the conflict before it got too far out of control. Having been forced to put out another Middle Eastern fire, the two superpowers then engaged in some fire prevention. The United States, for example, helped convince the Israelis to return control of the Sinai Peninsula, seized during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, to Egypt.
Uribe also knew that any military action would remain within strict limits. Although Colombia is receiving billions of dollars in US military aid, the FARC endures. Despite occasional bluster from Washington about Chávez, the US government is actually putting very little effort into containing him. Americans feel almost no sense of immediacy about Colombia's problems, and in several months, the Democrats may control both the White House and Congress.
Therefore, a limited military operation would, at worst, force the Americans and other outside parties to focus their attention on Colombia and Venezuela. Uribe now can play a more convincing game of brinksmanship, since he's clearly willing to reject diplomatic niceties if they get in the way of dealing with Colombia's security problems. The inevitable "Sorry, I don't know what I was thinking" press conference would occur, in which the leaders of the three countries would shake hands.
Everything beyond these results were just a bonus. The Colombian military killed FARC leader Raúl Reyes, seized valuable intelligence from the FARC compound they raided, and even got a J'accuse! opportunity with Chávez. The raid may have inflamed divisions within the FARC: FARC guerrillas may have assassinated Iván Ríos, another FARC commander.
Not bad, for the low cost of an apology.
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