Alone again, naturally

Perhaps the most important feature of the new sanctions against Iran is their solitary nature. Once again, the Bush Administration takes an aggressive, confrontational stance without anyone standing side-by-side with the United States.

Under the circumstances, you'd expect someone--the Europeans, the UN, even some Middle Eastern countries--to be joining the United States in putting more pressure on the Iranian regime. Other nations are within more immediate range of any Iranian missiles; suitcase bombs are more easily smuggled into Greece or Saudi Arabia than the United States.

It's equally surprising to see the Administration willing to stand alone, if President Bush believes that there's any hope that sanctions might work. Unilateral economic punishment makes it harder for some financial institutions to do business with Iran. Other banks will undoubtedly replace them. Many Iranian assets may be ensnared for a while, but unless the Iranian regime was foolish enough to put all its money in Wells Fargo accounts, it's hardly a fatal blow.

These sanctions do have one immediate political effect: they give Khamenei, Ahmenidijad, and their ilk the opportunity to take the tired but effective anti-American rhetoric for yet another ride. That's especially easy to do, given that the United States is the only country implementing these sanctions. In the short term, at least, these sanctions help them more than hurt anyone in Iran who deserves the moniker "enemy of the United States." Average Iranians are sick of Ahmenidijad, whom many consider a clown, and Khamenei, who is the face of the Iran of 1980s, a time Iranians are eager to leave behind. Why then is the Administration, yet again, giving the Khameneis and Ahmenidijads new political capital?

The attempt to separate sanctions against the Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force sounds, in theory, like the sort of distinction one should make. After all, the target for any potential economic hardship is not the Iranian public, but their execrable leaders. Unfortunately, the reality of economic sanctions is, as we know from past experience with Iraq, a lot messier.

Diplomats may have learned how to avoid the mistakes of the Iraqi sanctions, but that doesn't mean new techniques will be surgically precise. After all, the Revolutionary Guard is involved in many enterprises in Iraq, which in tun employ or serve a lot of people.

But maybe these sanctions aren't serious, so we don't have to dissect them carefully. Perhaps they're the result of an Administration who is frustrated with Iran, to the point where people close to the President feel that they have to support some action.

However, this is exactly the wrong time to be underscoring the isolation of the United States. Over 30 years ago, our allies stood on the sidelines as the United States struggled to extricate itself from "America's War" in Southeast Asia. While the US lost prestige and influence because of the Vietnam War, it slowly regained it. Other issues of joint concern, such as the Soviet threat and trouble in the Middle East, quickly occupied the US and its allies. Most of the bridges burned were rebuilt.

Today, we have another "America's War" in Iraq. In contrast, rather than build bridges, the Bush Administration continues to show how its ready to plunge into dangerous waters with little idea how to reach the other side.

More importantly, in the 1970s, the US only lost credibility because of the Vietnam misadventure. There were no great economic stakes, and none of the regional powers in Southeast Asia on the cusp of gaining nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, Iran is wholly unlike North Vietnam in those regards.

Comments

[aikibrewer]

There's also the possibility that these "sanction" are purely pro-forma, so that, when Bush makes a speech where he solemnly declares that Iran has tried to purchase make significant quantities of yellowcake enriched uranium, he can say, oh, look, we tried inspections, and we tried sanctions, and neither of those work, guess we have to go to war...

[aikibrewer]

Sorry, apparently comments don't accept HTML tags; "purchase" and "yellowcake" were supposed to be struck-through.

[Kingdaddy]

That's what I suspect, too, that the sanctions are meat for Bush's political base. If so, that's a really lame reason for sanctions.