Someone asked me last night, "How long do you think Musharraf can last? Another year? Less?"
I estimated that Musharraf would endure a lot longer than a mere year. Musharraf has been skilled at tilting in one political direction, then another, skillfully enough that both sides are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Today's news was a case in point. The US is inflicting some pressure on Musharraf (the exact amount is unclear) to do something about the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces ensconced in the "tribal region" of western Pakistan. While US pressure had something to do with the planned summit between Musharraf and tribal leaders who are ignoring or helping these insurgents, it was surely not the only reason behind the meeting. Musharraf needed to show the clans that span this region of Pakistan and Afghanistan that he still has the clout to expect good turn-out, and some willingness to listen to what he has to say.
Unfortunately, the meeting gave Musharraf a golden opportunity to pull out at the last minute. He can say that he is not willing to attend any conference that might jeopardize the interests of the Pashtuns, Baluchis, and other groups in this region. He can also make himself look, to a broader audience of Pakistanis, like a more independent leader than the other president in attendance, Hamid Karzai.
It was unlikely that anything substantive was going to emerge from this meeting, unless something had been worked out in advance. If American diplomats are fuming over his withdrawal, their frustration may be largely for show--or else they really don't understand the politics of Central Asia.
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