Just when you thought it was safe to trust National Intelligence Estimates again, ArmsControlWonk dissects the problems with recent NIEs about Iran's nuclear program. Fortunately, the more skeptical view arrives at a happier conclusion:
Recent public statements suggest that a new forthcoming NIE on Iran’s
nuclear program will not significantly alter this estimate. This is not to say that Iran is not making progress toward mastering enrichment, but merely that time remains for diplomacy.
In a similar vein, the Wonkster also takes a second look at the Tarhuna "weapons facility." In the 1990s, US officials warned that it was probably a Libyan chemical weapons facility. Er, um, wrong. There may have been good reasons to be suspicious, but US intelligence professionals seem to have lacked the hard evidence about Tarhuna that they had about its "sister" facility at Rabta.
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