Russian away

IN THE NEWS
The latest Foreign Affairs has a sobering article about Russian foreign policy. To borrow the author's analogy, Russia is no longer on a distant orbit around the alliance centered on Western Europe and the United States. Russia is now trying to establish its own center of gravity, in which it pursues its own interests in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the East Asian countries near its borders.

Fortunately, the current Russian attempt at empire has no motivating ideology, other than a jaundiced view of national self-aggrandizement. Russia's self-interest, in the eyes of President Vladimir Putin and his subordinates, won't be fulfilled by becoming a second-tier power tied to the West. That's a position that Russia has adopted since Peter the Great, so it's no surprise that, after the confused period after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the current Russian regime has reverted to a policy that tsars and commissars would find familiar.

The Bush Administration's efforts to build a special relationship with its Russian counterpart—based in part, according to Bush, on some mystical ability to see into Putin's soul, and find it pure—has largely failed. With oil and gas prices at an all-time high, and the Russian government having consolidated control of the energy sector through its corporate proxy, Gazprom, Putin sees no reason to depend on American good will. Thus far, any special relationship with the Americans has brought no substantial benefits, and in their eyes, endless hectoring about human rights. The United States has also been an active participant in the extension of NATO into Eastern Europe, and the expansion of the European Community as far east as the Baltic States. Occasional alignments with Europe, such as in the British, French, and Russian opposition to the American invasion of Iraq, also brought few tangible benefits. Meanwhile, Russia has expanded its relations with Iran, who at least seems both willing and able to make mutually beneficial energy deals.

That's not to say that Russia wouldn't respond to some Western leverage. If Putin were to go too far, either in supporting the regimes in Iran and North Korea, or in destroying what democratic institutions remain in Russia, the G-8 nations might reconsider keeping Russia as a member of that select community. However, even the harshest measures—and booting Russia from the G-8 is about as harsh as it's ever likely to get—won't change the current Russian leadership's perception that the only country that cares about Russian interests is Russia.

While there's no sign that Russia is going to turn into an actively hostile adversary, it will be a wild card in international relations for years to come. When the United States and Europe try to deal with Iran's nuclear program, they will have to consider Russia's possible countermoves. In trying to lower world oil prices, Russia will have some role in that process. Any further expansion of NATO or the EU will definitely have to take Russia into account. Even on counterterrorism, the Russians may smile and welcome Western assistance with Chechen separatists, but do practically nothing to help the US and Europe deal with their terrorist problems. In short, Putin's strongest diplomatic card is his ability to make Russian foreign policy hard to predict, while appearing willing at a moment's notice to create a great deal of mischief. Unfortunately, the United States needs less uncertainty in world affairs, not more. Personal relationships between presidents aside, there doesn't seem much that the US government can do to reduce the uncertainties that Russia now creates.

Comments

[anon]

"the only country that cares about Russian interests is Russia."

It's been said that states don't have friends; they have only interests. The notion that individual states are the only ones that care for their national interests is the foundation of the international order. The Russian position is entirely rational and in no way out of line.

[Honza Prchal]

I dunno. Russia's actions in Georgia right now are, at best, indirectly hostile.

That said, Russia is defending it's interests in it's classically heavy-booted manner. It's helping us in our efforts to kill off terrorists both through direct action and through itnelligence sharing who do not depend on its largesse or tolerance and exerting such leverage as it has to protect the rest. It does sound a lot like the Czars, only minus the idealism.

[John Haskell]

I would add the following
Para 1: correct
Para 2: correct
Para 3: correct
Para 4: correct
Para 5: correct

The United States pursues its own interests. Only Americans are naive enough to believe that other states would also pursue American interests.

[J.]

Well it's a good thing we have a Russian expert as the SecState! (he said sarcastically)

[John Haskell]

By the way, your "sarcastic" comment is right on the money. Our "Russian expert" does not even speak Russian at the first grade level. I have seen her try to speak the language on Russian TV and it's just another Bush Administration snow job.

[Jim Harrison]

As revolutions go, the fall of the USSR was a relatively peaceful affair; but the Russians did lose the Cold War; and the sequel has been a diplomatic, economic, and demographic disaster for them. It wasn't a win-win outcome at all. Under the circumstances, you have to be mighty naive to expect the Russians to feel warm and fuzzy about us, especially since NATO keeps marching East.

I sometimes imagine that Putin is saying to himself, "So here I stuck playing a bad hand, forced to humor a grinning halfwit who wouldn't last a week in my situation. He's got all the cards, but I bet he still loses."