If you set up a dunk tank at a school fair, whom do you want sitting in the dunking chair? To attract people willing to put down a dollar for a few tosses at the target, you want someone whom everyone else wants to see dumped into the water. Every school has its candidates: the vice principal who takes the job of maintaining order a bit too seriously; the coach who tears into his players for every minor mistake; the science teacher who grades harder than anyone else in the school. It's a socially safe moment, when the target agrees to be ridiculed, and the people trying to dunk them pretend that it's all in good fun, no real animus there.
The United States has maneuvered itself into a diplomatic dunk tank. The bellicose posturing, the pokes at the UN and reluctant allies, the celebration of unilateralism, the blatant hypocrisy of many of its policies (for example, the attempts to stay out of the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice, while proclaiming the importance of universal morality in foreign policy), its borderline-millenarian rhetoric, and most of all, the invasion of Iraq, have all put the United States in the same mental frame that the unloved vice-principal occupies. Sure, he says he's slamming kids against lockers for their own good, and the good of the school. But how could anyone tell the difference between a genuine desire to maintain order and the simple enjoyment of intimidation?
But then the school fair arrives, and the vice-principal is forced, for the good of the school, to mount the steps of the dunk tank. So, too, has the United States willingly mounted the steps of its own humiliation, at the hands of a real enemy, Iran.
The Iranians have clearly been enjoying themselves, much like the school bully relishes the chance to see the vice-principal plummet face-first into a tub of water. The Iranian leadership, most notably President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have cleverly maintained a daily presence in the headlines. The Iranian government's goals are clear: keep the United States off-balance; maintain the diplomatic initiative; keep everyone worried about what the mullahcracy might do next. Unlike Islamist terrorists, who (all post-9/11, free-floating anxiety to the contrary) have little incentive to acquire nuclear weapons, the Iranian government has every reason to build a nuclear arsenal. Humiliating the United States is not only a bonus, it's a measure of success. The threat of a nuclear arsenal, even before the Iran actually acquires one, gives the Iranian leadership enormous leverage. The scales of raw power still tip far in the direction of the United States.
However, the risks and uncertainties of any American-Iranian war give everyone pause—including the usually belligerent Bush Administration, which has agreed to direct talks with Iran. Since the Administration clearly did not want to be cornered into these talks, the Iranian government took the opportunity, yet again, to humiliate the United States. Rather than agreeing to the talks, which Ahmadinejad had urged early in the war of words, he is now being coy. Maybe the Iranian government will agree to talks, but only if the US government proves its seriousness…
The current stand-off with Iraq is not the first time that the Bush Administration has maneuvered itself into humiliating circumstances. The confrontation with North Korea, the third member of the infamous "axis of evil," has not squelched any chance for a nuclear weapons program. (Click here for an analysis of how the United States may have overplayed its hand, making it easier for the North Koreans to wiggle out of a real disarmament proposal.) However, the North Korean regime got the Bush Administration to agree to negotiations, broke down some of the barriers to trade with the outside world, and convinced many South Koreans that their heavily-armed neighbor to the north was less of a threat to regional stability than the United States. China also took advantage of the diplomatic stalemate to position itself as the broker between North Korea and its adversaries.
Similarly, the Syrian government heard threatening noises from the United States, including the accusation that it was hiding the WMDs that UN inspectors and the US Army could not find in Iraq. However, the United States really has not visited pain and suffering on Syria, even though the bulk of US combat forces are deployed in Iraq or nearby. In fact, the parties responsible for Syria's most recent calamity were not members of the Bush Administration, but crowds of angry Lebanese.
The Bush Administration's pattern of bellicose rhetoric, followed by inaction and capitulation, has many sources, not least of which is the ineptitude of the Administration's efforts at coercive diplomacy. The biggest factor, however, is the Iraqi occupation, which ties down US military assets, bleeds the United States economically, and gives adversaries like Iran and North Korea the limits of American power.
The day after the school fair, life returns to normal. The vice-principal is back on the beat, charging into smoke-filled bathrooms, raiding student lockers, and looming behind stragglers on their way to class. The momentary humiliation of the drunk tank is past, even though many students, and perhaps a few faculty members, still have a few delicious memories. Unfortunately, the humiliation of the United States will continue tomorrow, and the day after that, and the days after that. And the Iranians are far more dangerous than a few high school hooligans.
I'd like to see John Bolton in the dunk tank... Good recap on Iraqi leadership. I really dislike to see the more right-wing proponents talk as if Iraq has irrational leadership. They may be fundamentalists and focused on dangerous issues, but they're not irrational.
Posted by: J. | 06/05/2006 at 05:55