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Matthew Shugart

Oh, my. I had not thoughgt of Mrs. Covington in years! She taught my sister (9 years odler than I) as well as me (and, a year or two later, Kingdaddy).

Yes, Kingdaddy and I went to the same high school, as well as same university. How about that!

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Great post. Clear, correct, structured.

I'd like to propose another facet to look through. What is it like for the guerrillas?

They need to be dedicated. They can expect to lose and lose and lose, and perhaps prevail after a long time. They get chased all over the map, they lose people, they don't get any medevac to speak of. Air Jordan Retro Shoes
Why do it? They have to believe that their alternatives are worse. Possibly they might believe in a future paradise that justifies all the sacrifice. But usually they are stuck where all the alternatives are even worse.

Give them a reasonable chance to win politically and they'll try it. A democracy where the current minority gets some protection is a great start. But when civilians give guerrillas support, well, how likely is that unless the current government gives them no better choice?Air Jordan Retro Shoes

So you can chase them down until they're all dead, and persuade the civilians that they're better off with slavery than mass death. Or you can give them enough of what they want that it's better than fighting for more. And it's hard to mix those approaches.

In iraq, back when Allawi offered amnesty to former insurgents and Bremer said he couldn't give amnesty to those who'd fought US troops, that pretty much determined which approach we'd be stuck with. So Fallujah was the type case. Our approach now has to be to drive insurgent supporters, pretty much all the sunnis, into such dire straits that they unconditionally surrender and let the shia do whatever they want to them.Nike Sb Dunks Store

This is oversimplified to the point of parody, but sometimes a few facts trump the rest. Am I correct in these thoughts? Are they centrally important this time around, or are there others that are more centrally important?

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