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07/20/2005

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r frederick

While it does seem clear that the PRC Navy would loose to the US Navy, your assessment seems to be pat and frankly, flipant.

The PRC would not fight us on the open seas. If you believe that the US would sail right down the Taiwan straights in a shooting war with carriers and guns blazing laying waste to the PRC navy, you are mistaken. How many Chineese anti-shipping missles do you think are pointed towards the sea? All the while a massive air attack is underway, combined with attacks by diesel subs, and hundreds of surface ships. Yes most are old, but consider the Chineese willingness to send mass waves in Korea. It would be no different here. I hope and pray our leaders wouldn't be overconfident enough to send one battle group down the straight at the next sign of trouble. If the PRC assume we will fight no matter what happens, if they are serious, that would be one less battle group we would have. That would be the start of the war, not a sideline. Any actions by the Chinees prior to that would be to draw us in. Keep in mind, they only need superiority in the straights.

My point? The battle would take place in Chineese litoral waters. The PRC knows full well that they must plan for the US to enter the fray. That is the only thing that stops them, not the capibilities of the ROC. When they believe they can defeat, or neutralize us, only locally not across the pacific, then that's when things get dangerous.

China will choose to go to war/invade when one or both of the following conditions are met. When the believe they can achieve local parity with the US in their waters, and/or due to political despiration at home if and when their financial success breeds internal political unrest. Nothing keeps dictators in power like distraction and the foreign boogyman.

McGurk

Mr. Frederick's last paragraph suggests he is operating from a level of assumption about the PRC that is out of date. He says China will go to war with Taiwan when it achieves parity with US in those local waters. Why would this be so? We have superiority over them now, but we are not thinking of going to war with China. Countries go to war only when there is some compelling reason to do so. Dictators may go to war to deflect attention from their failures, but the PRC is not a dictatorship by any measure. It is a single party socialist republic with its leaders chosen by a form of democratic process. Not like ours, of course, but since the death of Mao and Deng, its leadership has turned over peaceably several times. There are also a number of autonomous states across the vastness of China and the current economic boom is moving the entire country toward more liberty, not less. Political freedoms are important to economic success, and the Chinese leaders know it. In short, we can no longer treat China's government as equivalent to that of Stalin or Hitler and assume that it will go to war to offset internal dissent.

Agent X

Replying to the part of the new DD(X) a.k.a. Zumwalt class destroyer. It is designed primarally for Naval-fire support.

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