Don't let the door hit you...

IN THE NEWS
For anyone interested in the well-being of Middle Easterners, events in Lebanon are unquestionably good news. The resignation of the Lebanese cabinet following the car bomb assassination of opposition politician Rafik Hariri  is reason to jump out of your chair and cheer. Hariri was killed on the Beirut boardwalk, on the shores of the Mediterranean, in full daylight. If this wasn’t the last straw for Lebanese tired of having the same degree of sovereignty that, say, the Scottish do as part of the United Kingdom, almost nothing would be. Now that they’ve felt their strength, 70 opposition politicians demanded the immediate withdrawal of all Syrian troops and intelligence apparatchiks from Lebanon.

If you want to hear something darkly humorous, listen to yesterday’s BBC News broadcast, in which a Russian government spokesperson tries to convince the world that the oh-so-delicate political and sectarian balance in Lebanon will be shattered if Syria pulls out too abruptly. That’s a knee slapper on two scores: (1) the Russians can hardly speak with authority about the delicate handling of separatist movements; and (2) this statement in itself is just the sort of condescension to the Lebanese that they’re fed up hearing. The generation that survived the 1980s, when Beirut became synonymous with “Hell on Earth,” has been working hard to ensure that it won’t happen again. Given Lebanon’s level of education and cosmopolitanism, there’s every reason to take them seriously. In today’s protests, Druze, Shi’a Muslims, and Maronite Christians held hands in the clearest possible message about the political future of Lebanon they could make for the cameras.

As usual, there’s the not-so-subtle implication that Arabs are somehow not ready for democracy. The latest generation of ignorant blowhards with strong opinions about Lebanon may invoke the bloody specter of Lebanon’s civil war, but they don’t tell you what gave birth to it in the first place. Beirut went from being “the Paris of the Middle East” to a Hobbesian nightmare because the factions could not work out a peaceful way to fix the defective post-colonial Constitution, which mandated a fixed ratio of legislative seats per sectarian group. The Shi’ite birth rate over the decades since the drafting of that constitution outstripped that of other groups, most notably the Maronites, the group once favored group under French colonial rule. Demography and politics were out of whack, old grudges flared up, and a civil war was born. The conflict grew longer and more destructive when outside parties like the PLO, Israel, Syria, Iran, and the United States became involved. In other words, the civil war didn’t happen because the Lebanese are savages, driven by some dark compulsion in their Arab blood or their Muslim faith. Instead, problems started when the Shi’ites demanded what any group in any democratic society would want: fair representation in their government.

People who worry about a Syrian withdrawal almost have a point. Yes, they can still act as a kind of peacekeeping force in Lebanon, in case militias start to form again. But they’ll likely be a very ordinary kind of peacekeeper, not very capable of enforcing the peace without inspiring yet another backlash. The Syrians have held effective control over Lebanon far too long—a situation, in case anyone has forgotten, abetted by the 1991 Gulf War. Then, the price the United States paid to get Syria into the anti-Iraq coalition was looking the other way while Syria tightened its grip on Lebanon. Now, the US government is rhetorically supporting the opposition, and putting Syria under significant pressure to leave. It’s hard to tell, particularly when scrutinizing someone as sphinx-like as the leadership of Syria, what effect these diplomatic pressures may be having. However, it’d be surprising to learn that the Iraq invasion didn’t have embolden some members of the Lebanese opposition, though this peaceful rebellion would likely have happened whether or not US troops were in Iraq.

Syria isn’t playing the same game of “who’s the better Ba’ath party” or “who’s the more impressive secular Arab state” that they once valued highly. It’s possible that Lebanon is less important to them as it once was, for reasons of prestige. For reasons of security, however, it’s still very important. Mutual distrust between Syria and Israel still runs deep, and Lebanon provides both a buffer for Syria and a distraction at times for Israel. The Golan Heights are a matter of both security and prestige for Syria, making the Syrian presence in Lebanon important for the leverage it gives them on the Golan issue.

So, yes, the Syrians aren’t likely to cut and run—but you never know. Bashir al-Assad is not his father, and Lebanon may prove to be too much of an immediate headache, particularly if it looks like a withdrawal might stifle other American complaints. Once again, what will happen will depend to a great deal on what outside powers decide, not on what the Lebanese are capable of doing. In spite of that reality, let’s hope that, this time, the Lebanese get the lion’s share of control over their own destiny.

Comments

[praktike]

Do you think the Shi'a are satisfied w/ their level of representation today?

[Kingdaddy]

Since there's a shadow government called Hezbollah with which a significant number of Shi'a identify, there are some Lebanese Shi'a for whom the government is, to a significant degree, irrelevant. They still want adequate representation in any regime, but they get some clout through Hezbollah's back door, since the Hezbollah and Syria are allies.

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