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I've been hesitant to jump into the post-Iraqi election discussion. The topic seemed to require a few days' worth of distance from the actual event before drawing any hopeful or pessimistic conclusions. But everyone else is getting pulled into the discussion, especially because--darn, what a coincidence!--the Iraqi election occurred right before Bush's State of the Union address. I still think that it's premature to say too much about the elections' significance for Iraq, but perhaps it's not too early to say what it means for us.
First of all, let me say, Hurray, Iraqis! You suffered under Ba'athist tyranny for far too long. If you haven't heard it enough yet, people around the world admire your courage. (In fact, I detect a bit of envy in some statements I've heard. If it becomes cool to be an Iraqi, well, good for them.) In spite of not having any power, in spite of not having jobs, in spite of not knowing if you'll be blown to smithereens at the polling place, you showed up, voted, and now wait for the results.
I'll make one observation about Iraq specifically: however flawed the election may have been, it gave Iraqis their first warm-up session for "normal" politics. Elections in and of themselves won't solve Iraq's problems. However, whatever moderation, horse-trading, coalition-building, and better understanding of the complex Iraqi populace that Iraqi leaders gained will help them make and enforce those key decisions later.
There are still pitfalls. For example, as I've argued earlier here, the elections have raised expectations of the new government beyond what they felt about the old government. These expectations, however, may be the preconditions of a nasty backlash when the new government makes mistakes, or proves powerless in the face of "security problems" (a nice, neutral term for the Hobbesian world in which too many Iraqis live). There are also important questions no one can answer right now, such as, How legitimate will this government be? For whom, and in what way, are just too hard to determine yet. Iraqis clearly felt very strongly about the elections; we'll see what they feel about the people whom they elected. (That's an even bigger question than today's statements by Sunni leaders, rejecting the elections.)
It was a happy, moving day. As one Kurd interviewed by The Guardian said, "Today is the end of a horrific era." It was also a vindication, but not for the Bush Administration's stated war aims, its strategy for the invasion, and its abysmal mismanagement of the occupation. It was a vindication of those on all ends of the political continuum who wished for a day when Saddam Hussein and the Ba'ath Party would be gone, and a more humane government in its place.
Here's where American politics prove, perhaps, as broken as Iraq's. People who have supported Amnesty International, Middle East Watch, and other humanitarian organizations may have more Democrats than Republicans in their ranks, but they also agreed with the Republicans who recently got religion about Iraq's brutal autocracy. Before shouting down their brethren on the left, they might have given them the courtesy of acknowledging how right these earnest humanitarians were in organizing letter writing campaigns, publicizing the plight of imprisoned and executed Iraqis, and pressuring their elected representatives to do more on the behalf of Saddam Hussein's victims. In the 1980s, of course, these groups found themselves jousting with the Reagan Administration, who was providing what proved, in hindsight, far too much support for the Ba'athist regime. (In fact, the Reagan Administration tilted too far in both directions, first in supporting Iraq, and then making reckless and bungled overtures to Iran.)
Rather than trumpeting how right they were about the invasion, the Bush Administration and its allies in the radical right should be using the moment to build two things it needs, whether it realizes or admits it: (1) concrete bridges across the American political divide; and (2) the appearane of humility. Instead of waving ink-stained fingers in the faces of their political opponents, Republicans would actually gain more by saying, You know, we still don't agree about the invasion of Iraq, but perhaps here's something we can agree is a good thing. I know you on the other side of the political aisle felt just as offended as we did by Ba'athist regime's horrible crimes, so is there some way we can re-start the discussion about Iraq from that point?
The other important benefit the Iraqi elections may have for us is the humanity many Americans may finally see in the faces of the Iraqis. Seeing them as people who have aspirations like our own, willing to sacrifice the way Americans once did to win our own democracy and the rule of law, is a critical step for ourselves to make. During the occupation, Internet message boards have been filled with intemperate, often savage comments. During the repeated sieges of Fallujah, far too many people made arguments in the vein of, If "these people" aren't sufficiently grateful for what American troops are doing for them, we should just grind all of Fallujah into dust. Not only do we need to be more patient, intelligent, and humane than this kind of comment implies, but we need to be seen as more patient, intelligent, and human. We're lucky to be in a situation, winning the trust, respect, and fear of millions living in the Middle East and Central Asia, where doing the right thing will also make our job easier with them. Let's not blow that chance.
I'm ecstatic to have finally seen Iraqis elect their own government. I'd be reckless to be too optimistic now about what bodes for Iraq, a country still in great peril. I think I can afford myself a bit of hope for how the Iraqi election might help us.
Still, let's all remember that it was a day for Iraqis, and no one else. (Click here, then scroll down to the bottom, to read an eloquent statement of this fact.)
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