The bodyguard of truths

IN THE NEWS
Today's announcement of the Senate select committee's report on intelligence failures leading up to the Iraq war essentially turned one of Churchill's most famous maxims on its head. "In wartime," Churchill noted, "truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies." The Bush Administration and its allies in Congress apparently believe that some lies are so important that they must be protected by a bodyguard of truths.

Apparently, there's a lot of very truthful and well-deserved criticism of the CIA in the report. (No, I haven't read the whole report yet. Yes, I did listen to this morning's press conference with Senators Roberts and Rockefeller, and I've been following the leaks and other hints about the content of the report.) The CIA is a broken institution. Having failed to predict the collapse of the Soviet Union, it spent much of the 1990s wandering in the national security wilderness. While other threats--and not just terrorism--clearly existed, the CIA was not adapting quickly enough to address them. The Agency played footsie with several new ideas, including a sometimes amusing effort to declare itself the leading intelligence gathering arm of American global economic competition. None of these Big Ideas had much currency with the leaders in the White House or Congress, so nothing as clearly important as the Soviet threat emerged to replace it as the new target of the CIA's attentions.

To followers of the CIA, the Agency's reliance on SIGINT (electronically gathered information) over HUMINT (spies) is nothing new. This trend started before the Berlin Wall fell, and it continued through the 1990s. The revelation today that the CIA had no agents in place in Iraq from 1998 to 2003 is no big surprise. Outsiders to the national security bureaucracies might be stunned to hear this news, but there were all sorts of reasons for CIA operatives to stay away from potentially messy entanglements with Iraqi generals and exiles. Especially after the Clinton Administration pulled the plug on an attempted coup against Hussein, CIA operatives saw very good reasons to steer clear of Iraq. Trust the satellites and seismic sensors to do what intelligence professionals with families and mortgages to protect did not feel comfortable doing.

The final nail in the CIA's coffin, according to Robert Baer in his autobiographical account, See No Evil, was the legal Gotterdammerung with the FBI. The rivalry and hostility between the two bureaucracies erupted into total war. Many CIA operatives, probed by FBI agents for evidence of legal vulnerabilities, decided that enough was enough. Either they left the Agency altogether, as Baer did, or they avoided politically or legally risky areas of responsibility.

But it's unfair to say that CIA analysts seduced the Bush Administration. As we've known for some time, experts on Iraq and WMDs--some in the Agency, some consulting for the Agency, others contacted independently--insisted that there was no significant Iraqi threat. As former inspector Scott Ritter argued publicly, that Hussein's regional and WMD ambitions were both contained, others argued privately. Ritter's comments earned him a barrage of scornful and unwarranted comments, often depicting him as a crackpot. Within the CIA, analysts and operatives got the clear (and completely justified) impression that there was an answer the White House had already reached, and now it was simply a matter of finding the evidence to prove it. This is not, as I've discussed earlier in this blog, how intelligence works. Any attempt by the Administration to pretend that the CIA dragged it kicking and screaming into a war that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Feith, Wolfowitz, et al. didn't want wouldn't be simply laughable. Claims like these would be, perhaps, the most irresponsible act of the Bush Administration to date--and that's a pretty high bar that Bush has already set.

That is, of course, the great lie that must be defended: the Bush Administration had every reason to believe that Iraq was a threat. Even if Iraq wasn't the threat after 9/11--al Qaeda was--Hussein had been contained.

For his part in sustaining this lie, George Tenet deserves all the blistering scorn he received at this morning's press conference, and perhaps more. Yes, the CIA was broken, but George "Slam Dunk" Tenet wasn't going to fix it by telling Bush what he wanted to hear. Perhaps Tenet believed that, by stringing along Bush, nodding enthusiastically whenever the topic of Iraq arose, he'd free the Agency to get on with other, more important business. And perhaps, if the United States did invade, we would find something there to justify our actions. And even better, perhaps our own allies would stop the planned invasion in its tracks altogether. I can't peer into George Tenet's soul, so I can only guess that he was thinking along these lines. Whether he was an enthusiastic neocon supporter or just someone trying to buy some time and cover for the Agency, he failed the demoralized, beaten-down professionals working in the Agency.

There's enough truth surrounding today's press conference to, perhaps, hide the lie in its shadows. The lie remains, however, for all to see. The shadows aren't quite dark or large enough.

Senator Rockefeller grew so apoplectic in his public frustration about the Senate investigation that he occasionally lost track of what he was saying. That's too bad, but I can certainly forgive him. The ground rules of the investigation were wrong from the beginning, and did great harm throughout.

Remember the Iran-contra scandal? Of course--and you don't remember it as the Iran scandal and the contra scandal. The arms-for-hostages deal and the illegal diversion of funds from these arms sales to the contras were two faces of the same scandal. It was correct, therefore, for the Tower Commission to investigate that breakdown as one event. Something went terribly wrong in the Reagan Administration, and there were more threads of continuity than simply where the contras got their under-the-table support. Both the Iran and the contra parts of that fiasco showed that the fast-and-loose way some people like Poindexter and North were handling critical foreign policy issues was dangerously reckless, and ultimately counterproductive. When the Congress and then the Tower Commission investigated this affair, the conclusion was the same: We don't run foreign policy this way. It's too important.

In contrast, this Senate investigation artificially separated the investigation into how and why we stuck our foot into the Iraqi trap into two pieces. Actually, that's not correct: the piece the Senate chose to examine in "phase I" excluded the "Team B" intelligence unit in the Pentagon, the Office of Special Plans. It was darkly comic to hear Senator Roberts speculate what might have happened if the CIA had run more "red team" analyses of Iraq. Actually, the CIA was already being second-guessed by Feith. If people in the Agency had wanted to contradict the White House's assertions about Iraq, and they had decided to risk their careers by challenging Tenet, they would then have to get past Feith, who had the trust of nearly all the important decision-makers in the Administration. It's a credit to the professionalism and dedication of many in the CIA that they were willing to contradict the Administration's view of Iraq as often and as starkly as they did.

Roberts also did himself no credit by firing the accusation of "groupthink" at the wrong target. Irving Janis, in his classic work, Victims of Groupthink, argued that decision-makers can easily fall into an unconscious trap: in the name of group amity and cohesion, leaders will abandon rationality and skepticism. Maintaining the group orthodoxy becomes the all-important goal, not making the right call. Janis framed the Bay of Pigs as a classic example of groupthink in operation. The Cuban Missile Crisis, in contrast, showed that the same group of decision-makers in the Kennedy Administration learned to avoid groupthink.

According to Janis, the signs of groupthink include the following:

• Unanimity: The group quickly arrives at a consensus and strains to maintain it. This kind of consensus strays from good judgement when the consensus itself becomes proof of its own correctness: because everyone agrees, it must be true. Critical analysis is a minus, not a plus, in this environment.


• Pressure: To maintain unanimity, members pressure each other, in obvious or subtle ways.


• Mindguards: Some members assume a disproportionate role as enforcers of group orthodoxy.


• Self-censorship: To avoid messy confrontations with mindguards or other group members, some decision-makers will withhold their comments, or even second-guess themselves into paralysis.


• Invulnerability: The consensus gives group members an illusion of invulnerability, leading to risk-taking at a level none of them would have done individually.


• Morality: The group believes absolutely in its moral correctness.


• Rationalization: The subculture of the group develops a set of rationalizations for ignoring critics and risks.


• Stereotypes: One species of rationalization is stereotyping. External enemies appear so evil or stupid that they can be discounted. Skeptics or naysayers become internal enemies, earning the same nasty treatment.

Having read this summary of Janis' signs of groupthink, to whom would you think in early 2003 this description best applied? I'm guessing you didn't think of the CIA first, or maybe at all.

But, heck, Senator Roberts got a chance to trot out a fancy-sounding social science term that, in abler hands, did provide a useful guide for making better foreign policy decisions. While not exactly a fact, the mention of groupthink gave the appearance of further credibility to a stunted, distorted analysis of what went wrong in April 2003.

Yesterday, in a not-unrelated story, Homeland Security Secretary Ridge gave another press conference in which a Bush Administration official urged us to be vigilant (another way of saying, "Be afraid!"), even though he didn't have any specifics to offer. The statement, "Al Qaeda is plotting to do the United States harm," is hardly headline news. (Perhaps if Ridge had announced that al Qaeda had abandoned its hatred of the West, a press conference would have been warranted.) Instead, Ridge admitted he had nothing specific to report about where, when, or how terrorists might attack--just that they were out there, like carjackers, rogue comets, or asbestos. The timing--the day before the announcement of the Senate committee report--may have been accidental. Somehow, given that Ridge had nothing to say, I doubt it.

This morning, I took a strenuous walk to see the Point Reyes lighthouse. It was a characteristically fog-bound day on that section of the Northern Californian coast. I couldn't see more than 30 feet ahead or behind me on the footpath. I didn't know how much farther I had to go to reach the lighthouse, or what I'd find when I arrived. I was, literally, in a fog.

The Bush Administration and its allies in the Senate would like the nation to believe that they were in a similar fog in April 2003. Who knew what we'd find when we invaded Iraq? Every sign pointed in the right direction, so how can they be blamed for what happened?

This version of events, as I said, is the lie that they obviously feel must be defended. I hope that some good comes from the truths revealed in the Senate report. The CIA needs reform--but not the type a bad parent gives an insolent stepchild. However, as legislators disappear from Washington for the summer, their exhaustion with the whole Iraqi debacle deepens, and the pre-November pressures for Republican orthodoxy increase, I we'll see a lot of courageous, magnanimous, or transformative proposals. Instead, I fear these truths about the CIA will cloak the real problems in a deepening fog.

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