Iran, nukes, and leverage

IN THE NEWS
The Washington Post carried this article yesterday about Iranian intransigence with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Aside from the IAEA's grumblings, similar unhappy noises are coming from the same European governments who had previously been praising Iran for its willingness to work with the Agency. At issue are magnets than can be used for enrichment uranium, acquired during a confidence-building period when Iran was supposed to be shutting down its enrichment program.

How does Iran get away with it? All the great powers (China included, to some degree) want Iran's nuclear program shut down. The armies of the United States and Britain are parked next door in Iraq. Even before the Iraq invasion, the US Navy and Air Force have been poised to strike, if needed at Iranian targets, if needed. So how hard can it be to get the Iranians to play along?

Very hard, apparently. If you're read some earlier posts in this blog on leverage vs. hard power, you'll understand why. If you look at just the US-Iranian relationship for a moment, ever since the hostage crisis--in fact, while the Shah was still in power--Iran has always had more than we wanted than vice-verrsa. Today, the Iranians have the ability to...

• Shut down their nuclear program.


• Reduce or cut off support to terrorist groups, including ones operating in Iraq against Coalition forces.


• Influence the swirling Shi'ite politics in Iraq.


• Adjust their rhetoric against the Saudi regime during a very sensitive time for the royal family.


• Influence world oil prices.

And we have...Not a lot of cards to play. The Iranians know that we can barely hold ground in Iraq, so any threats of invading Iran are hollow. So, too, are any naval or air strikes, which can't be effectively sustained to the degree that the NATO maintained its successful air campaign against Serbia. In other words, our hard power has bought us little with the Iranians--but it has supplied Iranian-supported groups like Ansar al-Islam with handy American targets.

Of course, our hard power is also working against us politically in Iran. The Iranian regime didn't "get the message" from our invasion of Iraq; instead, the theocracy took a very sharp turn to the right (as defined in Iranian terms). Among other ways the noose of oppression is tightening, the Guardian Council removed 2400 reformist candidates from the ballot in this year's parliamentary elections. While this crackdown started almost immediately after the reformists' 2000 electoral victories, it has accelerated since the US drumbeat for war and the invasion of Iraq. Not surprisingly, the mullahs, already afraid of what the reformists represented, are now fighting hard to resist foreign pressures that might threaten their control.

The Iranians may reverse themselves. Their public stubbornness may be temporary, a negotiating ploy to get something from one of the involved parties (the Europeans, the Americans, or the IAEA). Whatever the outcome, this incident highlights, yet again, the limits of our own hard power, and the reasons we shouldn't rely on it too much.

Comments

[Mens Jordan Shoes]

wow all those garments are so amazing and fabulous I don't come to your blog as often as I would like, but whenever I do I see some really amazing things keep up the good work!

[Nike Dunk Low]

I hope you have a nice day! Very good article, well written and very thought out. I am looking forward to reading more of your posts in the future.

I tend to agree with the comments here about the general disapproval about the monument. I live in the DC area and enjoy walks along the monument area. Nike Sb Dunks Store My biggest problem with the WWII monument is that the monument seems to glorify the war over the service members who lost their lives. Nike Sb Dunks 2010 The other war memorials in the area (WWI, Korea and Vietnam) place the emphasis on those who fell (either by name or pictures) while the WWII monument places the glory on the battles and campaigns.Custom Jordan Shoes The only nod to fallen service members is in the form of a field of stars which, if people were not told what they meant, would pass with little attention being paid to it.

[nike basketball shoes]

People I dare say that this is one of the best if not the best game that has come out in recent times, great item excellent blog, thank you people make me very happy!

[ff14rmt]

rmtなどがそうだ。rmt リネージュ2これらMMORPGといわれるオンラインゲームは、リネージュ2 rmt1つのサーバーに数千人のプレイヤーが同時にログインしゲームを行なっている。ここでいうサーバーとは、物理的なサーバーではない。MMORPGでは、rmt とはサーバーやワールドと呼ばれる単位で複数の同じ世界が存在する。アトランティカ RMT3万人が同時に1つのサーバへアクセスすると処理が重くなってしまうrmt aion