IN THE NEWS
In many Middle Eastern countries, conspiracy theories are practically a national sport. Sometimes, the conspiracies are even true.
Such is the case with the stand-off in Gaza. The Palestinian militants holding an Israeli soldier hostage probably wanted something more than their ostensible demands, the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and an end to the Israeli assault in Gaza. In fact, they've already succeeded at achieving their overarching goal, yanking the new Hamas-led government from the brink of peace.
Events are following a predictable, awful course. Israeli troops invade the tiny region of the Gaza Strip. Palestinian militants--those who kidnapped Corporal Gilad Shalit, and others who are capitalizing on this opportunity--make hotly-worded declarations. The Israeli Air Force attacks buildings where the most militant elements of Fatah and Hamas live and work. Innocent bystanders are injured, and the attacks damage the electrical grid. The referendum that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas proposed is quickly forgotten. Just as the siege of Arafat's compound temporarily united quarreling Palestinian factions, the current confrontation forces all Palestinian parties into a united front. The crisis erases any chance that Hamas would move towards a begrudging coexistence with its Israeli neighbor.
What we're seeing is, in a nutshell, the fragility of Israeli-Palestinian politics. At any moment, a single hostage, or a single attack, returns both sides to the default position of bloody conflict. If there is any hope for Israel and the Palestinians, it requires leaders on both sides who can respond differently to familiar provocations. Even without Arafat and Sharon, who indirectly collaborate to destroy any policies with the words "peace process" stamped on them, that conflluence of joint leadership has yet to materialize.
All this crap about terrorists targeting civilians (as if they weren't objectively part of the problem in the West Bank), and now Israelis launch a blitzkrieg against citizenry & infrastructure to retaliate against the taking of a single (bonafide military) prisoner-of-war.
Just when you think the crap can't get any deeper, it does.
Posted by: Vigilante | 07/01/2006 at 00:03
The Israelis are in a false position. They have pulverized the Palestinians to the point that they have no credible negotiating partner. For the time being, their military preponderance may be impossible to challenge, but there isn't anything useful for them to do with it; and eventually their neighbors are going to figure out some way of hurting them.
Posted by: Jim Harrison | 07/01/2006 at 16:31
"What we're seeing is, in a nutshell, the fragility of Israeli-Palestinian politics."
i read and agree with many of your writings but i strongly disagree with your above statement
"in a nutshell", we are seeing a classic (and cruel) example of collective punishment - a series of war crimes
Posted by: ttheDdoubleSstandard | 07/03/2006 at 11:42
One should keep in mind that the "action plan" by Kadima starts with the statement that "The Jewish people have a national and historic right to the Land of Israel in its entirety". It then goes on to describe that for demographic reasons concessions will have to be made to ensure a solid Jewish majority in the state of Israel. This is an improvement compared to Likud's open refusal to accept any Palestinian state, but it is hardly a good starting point for negotiations.
It is a mirror imagage of Hamas official position that all of Israel really belongs to the Palestinans, but the difference is that Hamas knows they can't win militarily and thus seemed willing to compromise. Israel as the far stronger part seems intent on continuing to crush Palestinian organization so they can claim they have no one to negotiate with while expanding settlements. Israel may never get all of the West Bank, but the longer they can delay an agreement the more land they can confiscate.
As far as I can see the only chance to ever get peace is if the West, especially USA as the main sponsor of Israel, decide to put some real pressure on Israel. Maybe not the kind of pressure Israel puts on the Palestinians by blowing up its electricity- and water supplies, but at least stopping all financial aid and imposing limited trade sanctions. Maybe once Israeli government officials can't get their salaries Israel will be willing to consider the price of its settlement policies.
Posted by: Thomas | 07/09/2006 at 05:37