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01/30/2005

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I also meant to tell you that you can comment to your heart's
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I always thought that the revolutions, the touches of state or similar to it has to do with the uncertainty of government and lack of security, so no excuse for war and death that this has caused!

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The Iraqi elections run along a revolutionary knife's edge. If, as the Bush Administration argues, elections will build an intimate connection between the voter and the government, that bond may just as easily make matters worse as better. If Iraq is passing through the stage of moderate rule, the elections may become the symbol of what the "new Iraq" is supposed to be. In other words, the elections may frame what the current "regime of moderates" is supposed to be: broadly representative of all Iraqis, regardless of religious outlook, ethnic background, clan affiliation, political ideology, or any other identifying characteristics. If the elected government doesn't seem representative, or fails to deliver equal justice, reconstruction, and security to all groups in Iraq, the moderates in power may find themselves facing more outrage and frustration than if the elections had never occurred. The elections, therefore, may undermine the moderates at this critical phase in the transformation of Iraq, not help them. Few can blame a provisional government for not being completely representative of a fractured, fractious country. Everyone can blame a new set of leaders in Baghdad and their American patrons if elections fail to produce a more representative, responsive regime than the interim government.

POSTSCRIPT: The term etiology was my doctoral advisor's favored way of phrasing this issue. I also have Harry Eckstein to thank for showing me how important—and, unfortunately, neglected—revolutionary etiology has been.

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In other words, the elections may frame what the current "regime of moderates" is supposed to be: broadly representative of all Iraqis, regardless of religious outlook, ethnic background, clan affiliation, political ideology, or any other identifying characteristics.

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