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07/30/2004

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ellroon

Good points and well said.
I believe the Neocons were stunned and frustrated at losing Bush I's second term and marinated in arrested development for eight years. They came in ready to pick back up with Iraq, ignoring all the frantic warnings about a new stateless terrorist: al Qaeda.
As to removing a military presence, it is too late for even that as a solution. We have not only knocked down the hive, we have smashed it and let loose hornets who will swarm the world looking for new places to live. We will not be able to contain the anger activated by this war.
Voting Bush out is a small first step to show the world that we are serious about correcting these terrible mistakes.
I doubt we will ever be able to return to what we had in world status before 2001. The hatred and distrust is too deep.

GW

EllRoon's post has now become obsolete, and eyt the original question still remains.

Sure, EllRoon is correct in the hornet's nest allegory, but I think the pieces are starting to come together. Who do we thank for that? Perhaps Al Sistani, to whom Tom Friedman gives a lot of credit. To the field commanders? Of course. Still from a planner's perspective what can we do on March 21, 2005 to move on from here?

First thing is to acknowledge that Iraq was not the center of gravity in GWOT. Never was to most planners. But it was a target of opportunity for Donald Rumsfield, Dick Cheney and W., who all realized that in creating Saddam, they had created a bit of a Frankenstein. Unfortunately, in eliminating the Frankenstein first, rather than eliminating Osama, America's military blew a lot of otherwise important oppoetunities: we blew it when it came to the international political dimensions of war; we blew it when it came to preventing Osama from escaping into Pakistan; we blew it when whe so desperately needed Pakistan's help, that they helped us less htan they would have; and we blew it when it came to maintaining the sympathy card after 911 that would have allowed a progressive fight against Al Qaida.

Ok, so we blew it. The Iraqi elections could help regain some of the lost goodwill, and thereby restore some of America's ground on the international dimension of war. The next objectives are: to consider are the dimension of victory, or to define what constitutes victory, and to identify the centers of gravity in GWOT.

Unfortunately, again, we have military policy being dictated by civilians with little understanding of the nature of military strategy and policy. In their minds, IT SEEMS, that perpetual war on terror suits their purposes. As long as the Treasury is capable of paying for their activities and priorities, then their political futures are secure, and the wealth of their friends is secure, too. A win-win for the administration and for many pro-administration business people. But I digress. Let's just suppose that the true center of gravity (COG) of the enemy in the War on Terrorism is rally identifiable. Who or what would it be?

I'm going to admit that we have tens of thousands of smart people trying to determine that right now. But as EllRoon so well pointed out, there is a diaspora of terrorists emerging from Afghanistan and Iraq. One of the bigger Iraqi COGs would be the top leadership of the Saddam-era Baathist Party. We are making progress eliminating a lot of that. We still have a ways to go – it will take great skill at building alliances in Iraq to improve our intel there, and to hunt down the missing members of the Baathist decision-making and asymmetric war-making authority. It will perhaps take diplomatic skills to extract those bad guys from places like Syria, Iran, or whatever other states in which they might have taken refuge. Still. The center of gravity is largely political in Iraq. If we can bolster public sentiment there to identify the Baathists as bad bad people and to discredit any and all nostalgia for the bad old days, we will have gone a long way toward getting the Iraqis to turn their own sights against the Baathists and to make a post-Saddam Iraq a miserable place for Baathist insurgents.

(So, I guess I’m saying that the COG for Iraq is the hearts and minds of the would be democrats and republicans who have a chance at winning over hearts and minds of average Iraqis against the Baathist and mujahadeen insurgents.)

In the war against Al Qaida, the COG remains all of Al Qaida and anything that makes Al Qaida a cause to be sympathized with. That includes the world’s most extreme Madrassahs, the leadership of the Egyptian Brotherhood, most virulent Al Qaida recruiters in the West, and all other, and the centers of theological and philosophical learning in that part of the world. Capturing and destroying Al Zawarhiri and Osama Bin Laden would lessen their pop-star status in much of the world (but their demise needs to be seen as ones to be reviled rather than admired). Let’s face it, these guys feel they are would be prophets. Until they are brought to held to account and punished for their atrocities, the mystique surrounding them remains.

So (imho) the COG in the war against Al Qaida is the support structure that allows Bin Laden and Zawarhiri to remain in hiding. Everything that gives those two support needs to be isolated.


GW

EllRoon's post has now become obsolete, and yet the original question still remains.

Sure, EllRoon is correct in the hornet's nest allegory, but I think the pieces are starting to come together. Who do we thank for that? Perhaps Al Sistani, to whom Tom Friedman gives a lot of credit. To the field commanders? Of course. Still from a planner's perspective what can we do on March 21, 2005 to move on from here?

First thing is to acknowledge that Iraq was not the center of gravity in GWOT. Never was to most planners. But it was a target of opportunity for Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and W., who all realized that in creating Saddam, they had created a bit of a Frankenstein. Unfortunately, in eliminating the Frankenstein first, rather than eliminating Osama, America's military blew a lot of otherwise important opportunities: we blew it when it came to the international political dimensions of war; we blew it when it came to preventing Osama from escaping into Pakistan; we blew it when we so desperately needed Pakistan's help, that they helped us less than they would have; and we blew it when it came to maintaining the sympathy card after 911 that would have allowed a progressive fight against Al Qaida.

Ok, so we blew it. The Iraqi elections could help regain some of the lost goodwill, and thereby restore some of America's ground on the international dimension of war. The next objectives are: to consider are the dimension of victory, or to define what constitutes victory, and to identify the centers of gravity in GWOT.

Unfortunately, again, we have military policy being dictated by civilians with little understanding of the nature of military strategy and policy. In their minds, IT SEEMS, that perpetual war on terror suits their purposes. As long as the Treasury is capable of paying for their activities and priorities, then their political futures are secure, and the wealth of their friends is secure, too. A win-win for the administration and for many pro-administration business people. But I digress. Let's just suppose that the true center of gravity (COG) of the enemy in the War on Terrorism is rally identifiable. Who or what would it be?

I'm going to admit that we have tens of thousands of smart people trying to determine that right now. But as EllRoon so well pointed out, there is a Diaspora of terrorists emerging from Afghanistan and Iraq. One of the bigger Iraqi COGs would be the top leadership of the Saddam-era Baathist Party. We are making progress eliminating a lot of that. We still have a ways to go – it will take great skill at building alliances in Iraq to improve our intel there, and to hunt down the missing members of the Baathist decision-making and asymmetric war-making authority. It will perhaps take diplomatic skills to extract those bad guys from places like Syria, Iran, or whatever other states in which they might have taken refuge. Still. The center of gravity is largely political in Iraq. If we can bolster public sentiment there to identify the Baathists as bad bad people and to discredit any and all nostalgia for the bad old days, we will have gone a long way toward getting the Iraqis to turn their own sights against the Baathists and to make a post-Saddam Iraq a miserable place for Baathist insurgents.

(So, I guess I’m saying that the COG for Iraq is the hearts and minds of the would be democrats and republicans who have a chance at winning over hearts and minds of average Iraqis against the Baathist and mujahadeen insurgents.)

In the war against Al Qaida, the COG remains all of Al Qaida and anything that makes Al Qaida a cause to be sympathized with. That includes the world’s most extreme Madrassahs, the leadership of the Egyptian Brotherhood, most virulent Al Qaida recruiters in the West, and all other, and the centers of theological and philosophical learning in that part of the world. Capturing and destroying Al Zawarhiri and Osama Bin Laden would lessen their pop-star status in much of the world (but their demise needs to be seen as ones to be reviled rather than admired). Let’s face it, these guys feel they are would be prophets. Until they are brought to held to account and punished for their atrocities, the mystique surrounding them remains.

So (imho) the COG in the war against Al Qaida is the support structure that allows Bin Laden and Zawarhiri to remain in hiding. Everything that gives those two support needs to be isolated.

GW

EllRoon's post has now become obsolete, and yet the original question still remains.

Sure, EllRoon is correct in the hornet's nest allegory, but I think the pieces are starting to come together. Who do we thank for that? Perhaps Al Sistani, to whom Tom Friedman gives a lot of credit. To the field commanders? Of course. Still from a planner's perspective what can we do on March 21, 2005 to move on from here?

First thing is to acknowledge that Iraq was not the center of gravity in GWOT. Never was to most planners. But it was a target of opportunity for Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and W., who all realized that in creating Saddam, they had created a bit of a Frankenstein. Unfortunately, in eliminating the Frankenstein first, rather than eliminating Osama, America's military blew a lot of otherwise important opportunities: we blew it when it came to the international political dimensions of war; we blew it when it came to preventing Osama from escaping into Pakistan; we blew it when we so desperately needed Pakistan's help, that they helped us less than they would have; and we blew it when it came to maintaining the sympathy card after 911 that would have allowed a progressive fight against Al Qaida.

Ok, so we blew it. The Iraqi elections could help regain some of the lost goodwill, and thereby restore some of America's ground on the international dimension of war. The next objectives are: to consider are the dimension of victory, or to define what constitutes victory, and to identify the centers of gravity in GWOT.

Unfortunately, again, we have military policy being dictated by civilians with little understanding of the nature of military strategy and policy. In their minds, IT SEEMS, that perpetual war on terror suits their purposes. As long as the Treasury is capable of paying for their activities and priorities, then their political futures are secure, and the wealth of their friends is secure, too. A win-win for the administration and for many pro-administration business people. But I digress. Let's just suppose that the true center of gravity (COG) of the enemy in the War on Terrorism is rally identifiable. Who or what would it be?

I'm going to admit that we have tens of thousands of smart people trying to determine that right now. But as EllRoon so well pointed out, there is a Diaspora of terrorists emerging from Afghanistan and Iraq. One of the bigger Iraqi COGs would be the top leadership of the Saddam-era Baathist Party. We are making progress eliminating a lot of that. We still have a ways to go – it will take great skill at building alliances in Iraq to improve our intel there, and to hunt down the missing members of the Baathist decision-making and asymmetric war-making authority. It will perhaps take diplomatic skills to extract those bad guys from places like Syria, Iran, or whatever other states in which they might have taken refuge. Still. The center of gravity is largely political in Iraq. If we can bolster public sentiment there to identify the Baathists as bad bad people and to discredit any and all nostalgia for the bad old days, we will have gone a long way toward getting the Iraqis to turn their own sights against the Baathists and to make a post-Saddam Iraq a miserable place for Baathist insurgents.

(So, I guess I’m saying that the COG for Iraq is the hearts and minds of the would be democrats and republicans who have a chance at winning over hearts and minds of average Iraqis against the Baathist and mujahadeen insurgents.)

In the war against Al Qaida, the COG remains all of Al Qaida and anything that makes Al Qaida a cause to be sympathized with. That includes the world’s most extreme Madrassahs, the leadership of the Egyptian Brotherhood, most virulent Al Qaida recruiters in the West, and all other, and the centers of theological and philosophical learning in that part of the world. Capturing and destroying Al Zawarhiri and Osama Bin Laden would lessen their pop-star status in much of the world (but their demise needs to be seen as ones to be reviled rather than admired). Let’s face it, these guys feel they are would be prophets. Until they are brought to held to account and punished for their atrocities, the mystique surrounding them remains.

So (imho) the COG in the war against Al Qaida is the support structure that allows Bin Laden and Zawarhiri to remain in hiding. Everything that gives those two support needs to be isolated.

volatages921

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words cannot say see the movie inside!
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Pls make comments about it,And do let all know the good news,
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Thank you

Daniel

But isaw this website that claim he is going to be major then MySpace or Ford!?? !!
words cannot say see the movie inside!
This is called the "Evolution Day" the day that Will change pages for the history of the net and man kind,

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Reading your blog, I just noticed that I would have rephrased Sgt Daniel's comment with a word to better get across what I think he was trying to say. I do not think he was saying he was blameless, but rather he was "trying" to be blameless. They as snipers are not targeting innocent people unlike the insurgents who use civilians as cover and kill their own people. Perhaps I am drawing too much from the quote, but that is what I would have tried to convey to a reporter who has very little knowledge of what I am trying to say. He is a professional, and does not needlessly kill. Great blog, glad I happened by, Leo

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